Greek baleout is Default by another name
Restricted default? Is it bird, is it a plane? No its Super von Rumpoy and Barroso to the Fudge. Do they really expect the shylocks to believe all this guff? Deep down in their heart of hearts, I guess not, but what alternative do they have? Other than to Fess Up and bring the whole Guacamole House of Cards tumbling down?
Thirty maybe forty years to pay it off and to cap it all, a Euro version of the Marshall Plan but then all this has done is offer the Greeks a few months of leeway and that’s it. The basket cases already suffering austerity cuts and those queuing up to join the Euro without the slightest chance of making a fist of it, are living in a world of self delusion, which is not a and never can be, a world without end…..
Huge amounts of money and the interest charges are at stake here for the shylock banks and institutions that piled in to buy these bonds in the first place. It would be good to know what the actual liabilities are if it all went belly up tomorrow, in the same provisional way they assess the viability of pension funds.
Of course to a great degree, as long as the payment deadlines are met and it doesn’t matter where the dosh comes from, the shylocks will hold fire. For the longer it drags on the better their chance to recoup a larger proportion of their outlay or stake. In reality that’s what it is, nothing more elaborate than a stake and a simple bet, Who dares wins with a first past the post mentality and the Euro Taxpayer as the lender of last resort.
Where will it end who can tell? If as the chief cheerleaders of the EU stand up time and again to tell everybody and his dog they will do everything needed to turn the tide, they have to be the King Canutes of their day. The Emperors with no clothes or the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dam. Take your pick for it’s not a pretty sight.
So when the House of Cards does finally come crashing down, as inevitably it must, we need to be on the other side of the world, even if we’re isolated and alone, So long as we have control of our own destiny and the power to set our own interest rates and distribute our deficit in the areas we’ve calculated are necessary to promote growth. We can soldier on, in the sure and certain knowledge that we can leave the rest of the Euro Zone to stew in their own juice. For it is not too big to fail (TBTF).
The EU can linger in the sick bay for as long as it takes the penny to drop and we can carry-on regardless rebuilding Perfidious Albion as the finest teacher the world has ever known. Protecting our Fisheries and Farmers, making our own laws and ensuring our City of London, remains the Clearing Bank of the world, in perpetuity.
Watch this space, I’ll be back!
Tom
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